Still A Long Way To Go in Group 9

I don't know why everyone thinks Ireland have secured 2nd place in Group 9 with the draw in Sofia on Saturday. It is a typically hysterical reaction from the Irish media who write off our chances when we draw at home to Bulgaria but subsequently deem us virtually qualified with the exact same result away from home. 

The reality is that thus far our results have been almost identical to the Bulgarians. The only reason we are ahead of Bulgaria at the moment is because we beat Georgia on neutral ground in Germany while the Bulgarians could only get a draw in Tbilisi a month later. I'm quite sure if the good fortune we received as a result of the Russian invasion of Georgia had been Bulgaria's, then we are the ones who would have drawn and Bulgaria would be two points better off. We were exceptionally lucky to beat Georgia at home and we have shown no conviction or desire to take the three points in any of our away games since that victory in Mainz. 

Italy have been criticised as being nothing special but to suggest that Ireland can somehow prize top spot from them is laughable. The Italians have already won in Montenegro and Nicosia and will go four points clear of Ireland if they win their game in hand. By beating Montenegro away, it meant that the Italians could afford to draw with Ireland in Bari and still be strong favourites to top the group. 

The Irish team is painfully average and we will have punched well above our weight to have finish above Bulgaria in the group. We have been outplayed by Bulgaria in both matches and it is very premature to suggest that their hopes of qualifying are over. 

The next round of games in Group 9 are to be played on September 5th. Ireland travel to Nicosia to play Cyprus while the Bulgarians play Montenegro at home in another must win game, which presumably they will win. Bearing in mind that Ireland got hammered 5-2 the last time they travelled to Cyprus, it wouldn't be a major surprise if we only came away from that game with a point. Even the Italians struggled in this fixture and were very lucky to win (a 2-1 victory with a very late winner) but then they are the World Champions. Ireland are far from world beaters of any description. 

If those results come to pass that will leave Bulgaria only 3 points behind Ireland with a game in hand. That game is against Italy which presumably they'll draw although who wouldn't put a win past them with the quality have in their ranks. Berbatov and the two Petrovs are bound to come good at some stage. Ireland too can only expect to draw at best with Italy at home which means that if Bulgaria and Ireland beat Georgia and Montenegro respectively at home in their last game, they will both finish the group on level points. Ireland currently have a goal difference of +3, Bulgaria's is +2. 

7 points from the last 3 games are the absolute minimum Ireland must achieve to be be sure of second place. The positives are that at least we are in contention going into the final three games this time round unlike our shambolic last campaign. So far we have picked up the results that were necessary to keep us on track and there is no reason to suggest we won't keep eeking out these results between now and the end of the group. 

In a sense we have laboured our way through every game. We were lucky to beat Georgia at home, made hard work of it in Mainz and against Cyprus at home. We could have beaten Bulgaria twice but for some very careless defending from Kevin Kilbane in particular. It's a pity we didn't because for all their quality, they were there for the taking on both occasions but having scored early in both games we sat back allowing the Bulgarians to dictate proceedings, daring them to equalise which they duly did. 

Trapatonni won't mind that too much because we could afford to draw those games but not to lose. Rightly with such average players, Trapatonni is playing the percentages and not asking more from his players than is absolutely necessary. There have been no kamikaze attempts to win games when a point will do. He is to be admired for introducing Caleb Folan in particular but also Best and St. Ledger, thereby freshening up a bench which had become all too comfortable with just being in the squad. For the first time in many years there is genuine competition for places in the Irish team and even Robbie Keane must now be feeling the pressure. 

He is it seems a luxury player for the Republic now, left on only in the hope that a chance presents itself as it did in Bari. The introduction of Folan has breathed new life into the Irish attack. He may be uncompromising and unfashionable but he has been very effective in our last two group games. It's a real pity Aiden McGeady can't shoot or we might well have beaten the Bulgarians twice but his battle with Stephen Hunt for a place on the left wing is sure to bring out the best in both players. 

The centre of midfield and left back look to be our biggest weaknesses at the moment but it would be unfair to criticise Whelan and Andrews too much. They are undoubtedly protecting the back four effectively and playing a disciplined role within Trapatonni's system. All the same, I'm sure Trap will feel a lot happier when Steven Reid returns from injury but unfortunately he is so injury prone that his return should be put in the same 'hopeful but unlikely bracket' as Stephen Ireland's. 

I can't see any change being made at left back even if the evidence suggests that one is necessary. Neither Kevin Foley nor Damien Delaney have managed to stake a notable claim for the position and no doubt Trapatonni values Kilbane's experience in a reasonably inexperienced and previously very shaky defence. 

Group 9 is still very much wide open and I would say that second place is only about 25% secure at this stage. Still when all is said and done it is a marvellous achievement by Trap and the management team that we go into the last three games in the group knowing that 9 points could well put us on a direct flight to South Africa next summer. After the shambles under Stauton, that's all we can ask for.